Trump XI Rift plays with some 100 canceled conversions, negotiations


President Donald Trump's revelation last month that he had not spoken to his Chinese counterpart in a "long-term" and that he was not interested in doing so is the culmination of a much broader rift in the talks that has plagued former officials on both sides. Is a cause for concern. 

Trump XI Rift plays with some 100 canceled conversions, negotiations


According to Arthur Kroeber, a trade analyst in China, for almost three decades since the Trump administration took office in 2017; there have been about 100 officially organized exchange forums between the two countries, ranging from pharmaceuticals to technology policy. The thing was starting to touch. Gao Zhikai, a former Chinese diplomat who served as an interpreter in Deng Xiaoping, made the same point.

Now almost all of these dialogues have died down, meaning that senior and middle-ranking officials on both sides are working in the dark about the activities and intentions of their opponents. This increases the risk of misunderstandings or escalation of crises, and prevents cooperation that could otherwise lead to emerging disasters such as Covid-19.

"The demise of these structures is not the trigger for a bad relationship, but the result of a breakdown in the relationship," said John Pomfret, author of "These Beautiful Structures and the Eastern Kingdom." Two centuries

Despite a "one-step" trade agreement reached earlier this year, US-China relations are at their worst in decades. With a full focus on the election campaign, Trump accused the Eleven government of failing to contain the pre-epidemic Covid-19 outbreak, which killed more than 185,000 Americans. U.S. politicians have expressed outrage at Beijing's crackdown on Hong Kong, as well as its treatment of Muslim minorities, in both cases.

Bilateral talks have been canceled or abandoned since Trump took office, like a growing face between the two sides in the disputed South China Sea - the most likely issue of any kind of military conflict, such as domestic’. Can't resolve issues. But in the past, those involved have said they can help promote back-channel diplomacy and have a more critical view of negotiating teams.

"You need some tracks that are basically talking to stores," said Kroeber, managing director of Global Economics, an independent global economic research company. He added that the existence of these forums "promotes relationships that can be implemented in times of tension and crisis."

A key framework for the US-China Dialogue was the 16 or more working groups under the Joint Commission on Trade and Commerce, or JCCT, established in 1983 as a forum for high-level dialogue during the Reagan administration. Was, done. It connects a wide variety of agencies, from trade and energy, the environment and agriculture, to US and Chinese agencies.

The Trump administration abolished the JCCT in 2017, which was headed’ by the Treasury and State Departments, with a strategy and economic dialogue program. They were replaced’ by more complex, result-oriented comprehensive economic dialogue.

"People feel like a lot of time has been wasted and a lot of material has been implemented," said James Green, who works in the State Department and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative in the Obama administration. He said that for a large number of US agencies, "often the only way to reach their Chinese counterparts was through some sort of dialogue structure," he said.

They can also be useful in practical ways.

Jennifer Boy, a senior researcher at RAND Corporation, wrote in a July 2019 study, "US-China cooperation was a key part of the anti-SAARC campaign in 2003. In contrast to the small scale of CARD 19, SARS is an epidemic, both of which It is a source of conflict rather than cooperation between countries.

Opportunities missed
"With US assistance in building China's public health system and biomedical research, data and technology sharing has benefited both countries and the world," Bui wrote. He noted that as a leading manufacturer of health products, pharmaceutical ingredients and vaccines, joint work between the two countries' regulators could help ensure better compliance.

Among the potential missed opportunities: A template of past work on influenza control monitoring to stabilize real-time analysis of synthetic opioid drug use, RAND analysis showed.

As the travel industry looks at new standards and procedures in the Coronavirus era, the US-China Travel and Tourism Working Group will not be around to bridge the gap between the world's two largest economies.

More specifically, diplomatic relations between the civil parties are no longer developing. The US president announced in January that he would stop sending Peace Corps volunteers to China after nearly 30 years. And both governments are working to prevent Chinese students from entering US institutions. Are running

"Slide to the Middle Ages"

Officials at the Chinese embassy in Washington said in a statement that the country was ready to "restore and restart" the dialogue process at all levels and in all areas. Everything can be put’ on the table. And all differences can be properly resolved through dialogue.

State Department spokesman Michael Pompeo, referring to the July 23 speech at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library in California, said in a statement that the "Eleven wants to oppress and barbarize the world." The United States has said it will not "kneel down" in Beijing

Although China has in the past benefited from partnerships with US agencies, there has been resistance among those who see their country rise at the expense of the United States. There is a perception among some in the Xi’s government that the United States is "on an incompetent slide" in moderation, "Pomfret said. And overall, the dialogues were "never good at keeping the relationship going."

Nonetheless, the concern for observers on both sides is how the security situation is deteriorating in the face of escalating tensions.

History shows the potential for accidents that test bilateral relations. On the military front, one came in the early months of the George W. Bush administration. A Chinese fighter jet collided with an American EP3 ship, forcing it to land at a Chinese airbase on the Hainan Islands. The 2001 incident fostered military dialogue and exchanges with stronger troops to counter the effects of such incidents in the future.

Although the relationship between the two militants is usually professional, there is a risk of confrontation and misunderstanding. In 2018, a Chinese warship came within 45 yards of the USS Dictator as it sailed near disputed cliffs. Last week, the People's Liberation Army fired four medium-range ballistic missiles into the disputed South China Sea.

There is also room to move beyond the military. The preferred means of retaliation against China and the United States and its allies is usually the so-called gray zone strategy that avoids direct confrontation. A possible example: the detention of two Canadians two days after the arrest of a high-ranking Chinese executive by Canada last year.

A similar situation with US citizens could be a test for Washington.

Regarding the two countries, "now China and the former vice-president of the Center for Globalization, former expert diplomat, Gao," even in the best of circumstances, all sorts of worries and anxieties between them should be understood’ as normal. "China-US. All kinds of dialogue and conversation are especially important.

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