The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Asia Pacific is poised to emerge from the worst recession in memory of a long time.
Growth
forecasts for the region have once again been downgraded, from -1.6% to -2.2%
this year.
However,
according to the IMF, there is a glimmer of hope for a jump of about 77% next
year.
China
will play a major role in the region's growth next year, with its latest
figures showing that the virus is recovering from the crisis.
But
there are still a lot of dark clouds on the horizon as countries, including
India, the Philippines and Malaysia, are battling COV-19 infection.
"The
scars will be deep," the IMF said, pointing to low investment, which will
have an impact by the middle of the decade.
US-China
tensions
The
region's economies are not only plagued by epidemics, but also by the US-China
trade war and the growing animosity between the two economic powers.
Speaking
to the BBC's Asia Business Report on Thursday, Jonathan Austria, the IMF's
acting director for Asia and the Pacific, said: "This is a very
export-oriented region, which is a lot to move forward. There is a great
danger.
"We
are concerned about the elimination of large-scale technology centers, not only
in China and the United States, but also on a large scale, which will have the
effect of reducing high-tech trade, which could lead to inefficient production."
Earlier
this week, China released its data for the July-September quarter, showing
economic growth of 4.9 percent compared to the same quarter last year.
The
IMF sees China as "a rare positive figure in a sea of negativity."
Draw
out recovery
The
good news is that the IMF expects the region to grow by 6.9% in 2021, but this
depends on a number of factors, including virus control.
"With
the right policies and international support, Asia's engines can work together
and move the region forward when needed," Mr. Ostry said.
One
of these challenges is to keep Asia's economy from becoming too dependent on
exports, which the IMF has called a "growth process."
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